Saturday, November 21, 2009

Military Science 軍事科学 The future of Japanese Diplomacy 日本外交の将来

But would there really be a war?


Now let's talk a little about war. Would some nation truly attack Japan? I will say something clearly. Wars are begun for profit. A nation attacks another in order to gain something. Of course, war is also a risk. The target nation has it's own forces. One cannot always be sure of the outcome. In warfare, there is what I call the rule of three. In general, it means the attacking force must have three times the number of defenders in order to be sure to win. This is assuming that we are on flat open terrain, weapons and training levels in both forces are equal. However, if the defender is in difficult terrain, such as a town, mountain, or behind a river, we need many more attackers to be sure of winning, something like five to one.


Japan is an island nation, and amphibious warfare is one of the most difficult of all. To successfully invade Japan, a nation would need something like ten to one as many troops.


But there is another factor involved here. A force invading Japan would have to cross the ocean, they must first destroy the Japanese Navy and Air Force to be successful. Also, remember that an attacking force will be operating far from their home bases, while Japanese defenders are close to their bases. This means that damaged Japanese ships and aircraft will tend to be recovered and repaired, while the enemy will lose them.


There is no force on the planet today that can invade Japan. In World War II, by 1942, both Japan and America had seriously damaged each other's Naval carrier forces. America could build more ships more quickly than Japan could, and that is the reason that America won. The only reason. Only in the Philippines and New Guinea could the US Army successfully fight against the Imperial Japanese Army. And that was overwhelming force. Even on the island of Okinawa, the US Army gave up and had to be replaced by Marines. Most of the island fighting in the Pacific was done by US Marines.


My point here is that Japanese make excellent soldiers. Many of my Japanese friends tell me that we need Americans to protect Japan, because Japan is too weak to do it ourselves.


This is not true at all. In my paragraphs above I have tried to show this. The truth is, an American military presence is no longer necessary for the defense of Japan. They can go home now.


But why are US troops still here? there is only one reason, power projection for American interests across the world. The Middle Eastern wars are a prime example. However, these Middle Eastern wars do not serve Japanese interests. What few terrorists exist can easily be handled by police forces. Also, these wars do not serve any American interest. It seems as if the US military is on autopilot.


In the Middle East, the US military has been defeated. The US military just refuses to understand this. It is high time to find a new basis for the Japanese/American relationship other than military power.



If China invades the Senkaku's the costs will outweigh any benefit. Also, Japanese forces alone are powerful enough to defeat a Chinese invasion. China has much more to gain in cooperation with Japan on a technological level, rather than invade some territory.


The future of Japanese Diplomacy.


I see Japanese Diplomacy having four directions in the future. These are America, Russia, China, and the southern direction.


America: America is a very complex issue. There are almost no Americans who realize the depth of problems facing the nation. America is fighting wars very far their homeland in the Middle East. To the Americans, they feel it natural that Japanese participate in such wars. But wars in the Middle East have no benefit for Japan, in fact they are dangerous.


At home, America is facing a complete collapse of it's internal transport system. Virtually all American transport is based on oil, and oil is quickly running out. Americans place their faith in discovering new sources of oil, or the invention of new technology. The fact is there is no technology that can revamp the US transport system in time. And there are no more big new oil fields. It would take 20 years to replace all cars in America. At best, before transport collapse in the US there is some 5 years from now from lack of oil. What this will mean it will become impossible to travel inside the US, and food will not come to the cities. People will stave.


American agriculture is based on single crops, one type of corn or wheat, one type of cow or pig. These are raised on massive corporate farms. However, the climate is changing very rapidly, and these crops and animals will not survive. Drought is becoming more serious every year, and deserts will increase greatly across the American continent. What Americans do not realize is that the American Plains States are naturally semi desert. Now they are the breadbasket of America, but the water comes from underground aquifers. It is not being replaced , it is almost gone.


Japan can help by building high speed Bullet Trains, but because of the stupidity of American financial institutions, America cannot pay for them. They would have to be owned and operated by Japanese companies.


America is facing Civil War. The Christian Fundamentalist movement in America wants to change America into a Theocracy. Basically, they would forbid all books except the Bible, all music except Christian music, all education except Christian. And these are not the types of Christian churches that have existed in America until now, these churches are to be destroyed. People who do not convert to their type of Christianity are to be expelled or killed. these people have heavy influence in the US government and the military. In the recent US Presidential election, the candidacy of Sarah Palin was an expression of this movement. They represent some 40% of Americans, with some 25% having such extreme views as I have written here.


Russia: I believe that Russia is a natural partner of Japan. Climate Change means that Siberia will be much more accessible. They will need Japanese technology. Yet half the population of Siberia is Chinese. Japan would be a natural ally to develop Siberia and provide a balance to China.


China is also a natural partner to Japan. We have deep history together. Yet China is also facing the prospect of internal Civil War, the impoverished interior versus the rich coasts. Also, China is facing deep problems because of Climate Change. The difference between China and America is that the Chinese realize this, they are working to solve these problems. I am not naive about how China feels towards Japan, they feel a natural relationship is China the elder brother, Japan is the younger brother. I feel it is more like China is the body, Japan is the head.


The Southern direction.

I think the southern direction will be a line from Japan to Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia and India. This line will provide another balance.


Since the end of WWII, Japanese foreign policy has been American centric. I think we will now see an evolution to Japan as a nation at the center of these four lines.


















ついでに言うと、私個人としては、アメリカ軍に日本から撤退していただき、自衛隊を日本軍に改組し軍備を拡張・増強すると同時に、日本政府がWW2以前のように国益に貪欲になって欲しいと思っています。こういう日本人が増える事をアメリカ政府は歓迎するでしょうか?アメリカ政府は、シャンパンの栓として米軍を日本に駐留させる事はアメリカの「利益」に適うと考えるのではないでしょうか?そうだとすれば、アメリカ政府の考える利益と、アメリカを中国に対するsecurity guardとして駐留させる日本政府の利益は一致していると言えます。