Tuesday, June 29, 2010



Thursday, June 24, 2010

The World Cup Japan Denmark


Japan knocks the teeth out of Denmark!

Saturday, June 19, 2010

The World Cup

Now we surprised Holland. Now we must go SMACK Denmark!


Thursday, June 17, 2010

メキシコ湾の原油流出とアメリカ崩壊の可能性 The Gulf of Mexico oil spill and the possibility of American collapse

Hello to my readers. I have often mentioned in my writing, the idea of Civil War in America. I have discussed the American Christian Fundamentalist movement, and their desire to create revolution in America.




I have discussed American financial collapse.



I have long been intending to write a blog post tying these separate threads together, and to explain how an American Civil War will occur. I have felt that what was necessary for Civil War would be what I call a "Trigger Event". This is a catastrophe that destroys organized society, and thusly creates the environment for Civil War to occur.


I have always felt that this trigger event would be drought caused by Global Warming. This drought would become so severe that the American Southwest would become unihabitable by 90% of the present population. These people would move or die, creating tremendous stresses in American society, and Civil War.


I have always felt that this event will come in 5 to 7 years from now. Well, let me tell you, it is still on schedule. The severity of drought is increasing, and America is facing the prospect of crop failure on a large scale.


But this is still some years ahead. There is a little time for government to wake up and make plans, if they have the sense to do so.


But I think right now, we have an immediate trigger event, the Deepwater Horizon oil leak. And I think this crisis will bring us to Civil War and domestic disintigration in America within 12 to 18 months.


I have written about this event before on this blog:



And a simulation of the extent of the slick by the end of summer.



With this oil leak, I do believe we have our trigger event.


Before I proceed, let me define what I think this Civil War will entail. I do not really see massive lines of two armies attacking each other like in the previous American Civil War of 1861 to 1865.


In America, we say this is a conflict between Blue State Liberals versus Red State Conservatives. The division is not so neat and clean. It is much more rural versus urban.


A look at a map of the 2008 Presidential election shows this division.

I think we will have numerous incidents of violence across the nation as Gulf refugees seek somewhere to go. Eventually, many US government organizations will become unable to fulfill their functions, the police and military will not be completely loyal. The President could fall or become irrelevant.


The Red Conservatives will have Christian Fundamentalism as an organizing force on there side. In general, they are rural people, and gun owners. They have some experience of an out door life. Many Reds have military experience. Blue liberals are urban, more educated. But they have no comparable unifying force or philosophy like Christian Fundamentalism. Their religious beliefs are generally mild, if they exist at all.


The Reds are more likely to win.
But let us return to our trigger event in the Gulf of Mexico.

にほんブログ村 ニュースブログ 海外ニュースへ

In my previous blog post in May, I have demonstrated how BP cut corners by not installing comprehensive safety systems. And what they did have did not work.


The American government has basically left the clean up effort to BP. However, BP has shown amazing incompetence. Booms to contain oil are not properly anchored, and drift away. They have been found several meters out of the water in swamp grasses they were supposed to protect.


BP is still using local Police forces and the United States Coast Guard to limit media access. Yet a pair of reporters who got past police barriers found BP contracted workers trying to clean up the oil with paper towels.



I cannot find words for such stupidity.


Six weeks into the disaster, workers are falling ill.



As this article says, there are few studies about long term human exposure to oil and oil fumes. And what about exposure to merchant ship crew members crossing the Gulf? 7 out America's top 10 ports are on the Gulf of Mexico.



So how much oil is leaking, and where is it going?


Here I go lashing out at BP again, but they have been very duplicitous with the numbers. They have been fooling the American public, and the world. Well, as a human being, I can partly understand this. The legal liability for BP is based on the amount of barrels leaked of oil per day.


At first, right after the spill, BP said 1,000 barrels a day. That quickly became 5,000. The numbers slowly crept upward. It took a long time for BP to release video of the leak, but now scientists are saying the true amount of the spill is 50,000 to 100,000 barrels a day.



BP now says that it is capturing 15,000 barrels per day, but that still leaves a lot of oil leaking into the ocean. Look at the video in the above link, oil is pouring into the ocean.


Where is it going?


Looking at this daily interactive map, it is well advanced into the Gulf of Mexico Loop current. That means it will very soon reach the North Atlantic.



A simulation I previously linked to shows the oil slick covering the entire eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, the Eastern US coast, and reaching Europe by the end of summer.


Also, please remember that since this well is so deep, 1,500 meters below the surface of the ocean. Much of the oil has been detected moving in deep underwater plumes. The plumes are moving in different directions. Where they will end up, no one can guess, but they will go somewhere with devastating effect.

にほんブログ村 ニュースブログ 海外ニュースへ

So what is going to happen?


I think this is pretty obvious, although Major media sources are only gradually beginning to say this. I think we should prepare for the prospect that all life in the Gulf of Mexico will go extinct. I think we should prepare for the event of all coastal Areas up to several kilometers inland from the coast will become uninhabitable because of oil fumes from polluted beaches and shorelines.


The oil spill will eventually blanket the Gulf, and seriously damage the Atlantic.


Well, so how how many people are we talking about? Looking at the population listed on this US government website, let us say that 50 million people live in the Coastal areas in 2010.



As commercial fishing will disappear, and tourism, so will the businesses that serve those industries. In any case, living on the coast will become a health risk. Long term constant exposure to oil fumes will cause early death.


So 50 million Americans will lose their jobs and have to move. In a few months. This will destabilize the United States of America.


The economic dislocation has already begun.


P&J Oyster company, with 134 years of history in New Orleans, is closing. There are no more oysters.



The shrimp industry is over.



Some figures.


Louisiana produces 50% of US shrimp, 35% of blue claw crabs, and 40% of it's oysters. The Gulf region as a whole produces 75% of American shrimp and in total 20% of America's seafood production.



That is now all over. And since oil is long lasting, and the amount released so massive, I think we say that it will be many decades before the Gulf recovers.


And I have not mentioned damage to fisheries on the US East Coast, the oil should start reaching there from mid summer.


Efforts to plug the leak


Several attempts to plug the leak with a cap were made immediately after it occurred. These were basically caps to siphon up all the oil to the surface. They all failed completely.


In late May, the most serious attempt to plug the leak was made, a "Top Kill".



This would force heavy drilling mud and cement into the well, sealing it. Well, that was the plan. It was found out that the pressure of the oil was way too high to be stopped.


But today, as I write this, I have found even worse news.



The oil casing is leaking inside the well. Oil and gas have been escaping through the rock and up through the sea floor. What this means that instead of a single drill hole, we will have an entire area of leaks.



At the present time two relief wells are being drilled in an attempt to intercept and plug the problem well at a deeper depth. There is now the possibility that the relief wells will not be enough, and that the entire sea floor will fracture and collapse, releasing the entire oil reservoir below all at once, in a giant volcano like explosion.

現在、二つの"Relief well"は掘削中、この試みはもっと深い所で問題の油井を途中で押さえる努力です。現在に、この二つの"relief well"が足りない可能性が有って、それと、すべての海底がひびに成って崩壊して、岩下の石油貯留槽のすべての石油を大きい火山みたいな爆発で出す可能性が有ります。

There are reports that large vents leaking oil have been found 11 kilometers away from the site.



For video of these vents and cracks leaking oil and gas, go here:



Now I mentioned relief wells. What are they? Well the concept is to drill another well parallel to the leaking well. Then, you go sideways, and intersect the leaking well, and pump cement in to fill it. This technique has worked on land before.

私は"relief well"を書きました。これは何ですか?この計画は漏れている油井の平行に掘削します。それで横から掘削して、漏れている油井に交差して、コンクリートを中に入れます。このやり方は、以前陸地の漏れている油井で大丈夫でした。

The first relief well will reach it's goal in August. However, oil spill experts say it is usually impossible to hit on the first try, it takes at least 3 or 4 times. So we should think of Christmas as a strong possibility.

最初の”relief well”は、8月に当たるでしょう。しかし、専門家の話で、最初の試みで当たるのはだいだい不可能ですし、普通3か4回位かかります。それでは、クリスマス位を考えた方がいいです。

The relief wells are being drilled to a depth of 3,000 meters. There is a strong reason for this. BP officials think the well casing is damaged and leaking 330 meters down. To successfully plug it with cement, they must get well below that. And there are serious indications that there are leaks below 330 meters.

”Relief well”の方は、3、000メートルまで掘削しています。これについて重要な理由が有ります。BP社の役員達は、油井ケーシングの漏れは330メートル下に有ると思っています。成功的にコンクリートで止める為に、その漏れの下に交差しないとダメです。それと、330メートル以下に他の漏れは有る兆候が有ります。

And now for some more of that very scary news. We know that the oil reservoir is beneath 4,000 meters of rock from the the sea floor. We know that the well casing has failed 330 meters below and perhaps other places below the well head. We know that oil and gas is leaking from that point into the surrounding rock, weakening it and creating new cracks and vents.


One thing. With this well, we have gone very deep, engineers are not used to these depths. And we have encountered extreme pressures, nothing like we have worked with before.


If there are other leaks in the casing deeper in the well, we are truly in serious danger. That would mean a large section of the surrounding rock would be constantly getting weaker from oil and gas leaking through it.


And the reservoir below is exerting constant extreme pressure on the rock formation. So if the entire rock formation is weakening, we are facing the possibility of an explosive eruption of massive amounts of oil and gas.


How much oil is in the reservoir? Well, who knows, but I think I can say an awful lot. Otherwise BP would not have drilled there in the first place.


So if we had a sudden massive eruption, perhaps we should think of the entire North Atlantic becoming an oil sea along with the Gulf of Mexico.


In my next post, I will discuss the social chaos and possibility of Civil War in America.


にほんブログ村 ニュースブログ 海外ニュースへ
にほんブログ村 政治ブログ 国際政治・外交へ

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

第二次朝鮮戦争と日本の影響 The Second Korean War and it's possible effect on Japan

Today, I am writing the second part of "The Second Korean War"

今日、私は、”第二次朝鮮戦争” 第二部を書いています。


In this, my next piece about the second Korean war, I will discuss how North Korea can possibly attack Japan, the ability of the US to participate and reinforce it's units here, the role of China in the war, and what sort of political structure should be attempted in postwar North Korea.


First, let us look at how North Korea could attack Japan.


North Korea has an estimated 600 Nodong missiles targeted on South Korea, and 200 on Japan. Yet these are complex liquid fueled missiles, and have only been tested once in May of 1993 with a flight of 500 kilometers.


Taepyodong missiles have flown, twice, but only once has it flown any distance, and it failed in it's apparent goal to launch a satellite into orbit. Also, the Taepyodong is complex, takes several days to ready for flight.




Americans regard 13 successful tests before a missile system can be considered reliable.


So I do not think that the North Koreans would be able to have all of their missiles in a flyable state, and that many of them would fail. But it is conceivable that some would land in South Korea or Japan.


I do not believe that North Korea has a workable nuclear weapon. In their speed to try to develop one, they killed off many of their own scientists. The tests that they have conducted which they say was a nuclear weapon are controversial. In my opinion, they were massive amounts of conventional explosive laced with nuclear material, not an actual working bomb.


I am saying this because virtually everything in North Korea is faked. And also because for North Korea, the threat of having a bomb works just as good as actually having a real bomb.


I also do not believe that North Korea would be able to produce a sophisticated biological weapon. It's infrastructure is too primitive, electric power too unreliable.


North Korea does have a large inventory of chemical weapons. And of course their missiles have conventional explosive warheads.


But they are very inaccurate. North Korea could target the cities of Tokyo or Osaka, but they would have difficulty in hitting reliably a target such as Shinjuku station or the American Yokota airbase. Of course, the missiles would come down somewhere in Japan, if they succeeded in actually taking off.


Despite all the hype in the press, there is really no missile defense system that is reliable. The best defense against missile attack is the threat of retaliation.


North Korean missiles



But here is one place that American cruise missiles might come in very handy, in taking out those missile before they are launched.


North Korea does have extensive commando forces. However, it would be very difficult to get any of them to Japan. I would say it is impossible for North Korea to attack Japan with an aircraft, it would be detected and shot down.


A North Korean submarine might just make it across the Japan sea, but the odds are against it. Also, some commandos may be pre-positioned on North Korean merchant ship. However, they would only be useful in the first few days of the war. The Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force, and the Japanese Coast Guard would quickly round up any North Korean vessels in the area around Japan.


Many people don't realize it, but many Coast vessels are armed.



The Japanese Coast Guard has a total of 455 vessels, and the largest ones with weaponry could serve as a backup Naval force.


There is a large community of ethnic North Koreans in Japan. While no one can say for certain that there would be no trouble from them in case of war with North Korea, I think the possibility of problems would be small.


It is one thing to support your ancestral country while living in Japan. But for all practical purposes, these people are Japanese. Their primary language is Japanese, their everyday activities are with Japanese people. Their homes and families are in Japan.


It is one thing to send money in support of North Korea, it is totally another to commit violence in Japan in support of North Korea.


Even if North Korea ordered some of them to commit violent acts in case of war, I doubt that they would. They would find some reason to be too busy.


And I am sure that the Japanese police forces have thought of this possibility, and are watching them closely.


In any case, if war breaks out with North Korea, their position would be very uncomfortable. And North Korean missiles are very inaccurate, they might fall on their houses too.


Well how would American military forces be involved in this war?


In Korea, as far as ground troops are concerned, America has one US Army Brigade. It is positioned north of Seoul and would be quickly involved in the fighting. But compared with the numbers of South Korean troops, it is a token force.


There is maybe half of a US Marine division in Okinawa. It could be moved to South Korea within a week. But it is too small to have more than symbolic effect. But it would be extremely unlikely for America to deploy any further ground troops in Korea any quicker than six months after the start of hostilities. This because the entire US military at this time is overburdened by commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.


One third of the US Army's combat brigades, 12 out of 37, are currently deployed.



This is the limit of the Army's capabilities. It is standard that while one brigade is fighting, two others must be in the rest and replacement cycle. They rotate over time, usually one year deployments over time. To commit all troops in a cycle to combat means that the entire force must eventually be withdrawn to rest or refit, or the unit will collapse.


Also, like the Army, the Marines have extensive commitments in the Middle East. It would be difficult for them to send more than a brigade or regimental force to Korea for an extended time.


If war broke put in Korea, American units would have to be removed from the rest and replenishment recycling from the Middle Eastern wars. And frankly, America is not handling those two wars well. America COULD surge active duty US Army units to the Japan Korea area in an emergency, but they would arrive without all their equipment. Much of their equipment has worn out in Iraq.


In any case, it would take several months to move these units from the United States to Japan or Korea.


Many of the American troops have been on active duty in Iraq and Afghanistan for years now. Many of the troops have been on multiple tours. Realistically speaking, if deployed to Korea, they would breakdown in six months due to equipment and personnel problems. They would have to be withdrawn back to America.


America does have 13 Army Reserve Divisions;


And 10 National Guard Divisions;



However, these units have had their best units and best equipment used in Iraq/Afghanistan. It would take several years to build the equipment and train the personnel to make them fully combat capable.


So the ground American units are not vital, they would be only symbolic help.


American Air and Naval units would be a much more immediate and practical help. They would help to destroy North Korean infiltration submarines and aircraft. But again, The South Korean air force and Navy is capable, and has a large number of vessels and aircraft.



However, having written all that I have, the best option is to wait for the North launches an all out attack on the South. They will suffer tremendous casualties and defeat. Survivors of an offensive will likely stream back into North Korea, causing social unrest and perhaps revolution.


In such a case, I do not think it is a good idea to send US forces into North Korea in pursuit. This should only be done by South Korean forces, along with Chinese forces from the Northern border area.


American troop presence in North Korea was the reason that China entered the war in 1950. China has been emphatic that it does not want to see US forces in North Korea.


There is no need for US forces in the North. In such a case South Korean and Chinese forces would be enough. With all these problems that North Korea is causing, an actual invasion of the North is the wrong thing to do. The North Koreans would fight like Tigers in such a case. And in defensive battles they would have an advantage.


In any case, it would be years before the United States could build up it's reserve forces, or rebuild it's active duty forces to truly take on North Korea in an offensive war. The Middle Eastern wars have drained the US military.


But the most important country in the next Korean war will be China.


And here is another hard fact for Americans to understand. China is the most important player here. We are not going to see reunification of the Koreas for one hundred years. The only possible outcome if the North starts a war will be to create a new state in the North, more open to the rest of the world.


Then slowly and gradually begin to modernize that nation.


But the infrastructure is soooo decrepit, and the mindset of the people is sooo set in their belief of superiority, that extensive contact with the outside world will come as an extreme shock. Military defeat will also shock them, they believe they are the most advanced nation in the world. And the people themselves are physically stunted by years of malnutrition.


North Korea will then become a dependent state of China and South Korea, and will need a tremendous amount of aid, and many decades, before it can be a country that stand on it's own.


Frankly speaking, North Korea is a basket case. I cannot understand why some of the more Right wing American types would want to take it into the American orbit. It is impossible.


And as a final note, many people worry that if US bases in Japan close, China will attack or threaten Japan. In 1992, the Philippines expelled all US bases. The Philippine Air Force does not possess a single combat aircraft, the Philippine Navy has fewer warships than the Japanese Coast Guard.


And China has not invaded the Philippines. Really with the ninth largest military in the world, I don't think Japan has to worry.



Friday, June 4, 2010

メキシコ湾原油流出油膜行き先シミュレーション A simulation of the future extent of the Louisiana oil slick

The National Center for Atmospheric Research in the United States has released a computer simulation of where the oil will go from the leak off the Louisiana coast.


The simulation shows the leak spreading across the Atlantic ocean this summer.


This will probably force the cessation of all fishing activity in the Atlantic for an indefinite period. And that would include Japan's tuna fleet.


Perhaps my readers should take the family out for a tuna sushi dinner tonight, it may not be possible much longer.



Wednesday, June 2, 2010

鳩山総理大臣について Concerning Prime Minister Hatoyama

Yesterday, Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama announced his resignation. I was rather saddened by this. Yes, I would have been more happy if he had been more decisive. However, I felt that The United States of America bullied him unmercifully over the Futenma issue.


As usual, American behavior towards Japan on this issue showed a total lack of understanding of events in Japan. And I think the result of this will be that NO government in Japan will now solve the Futenma issue to America's satisfaction.


And eventually, this will lead to the breakup of the Japanese/American military alliance, and a new arrangement in Northern Asia.


Well, I think it is time. The Cold War is over, and America is weakening. American domestic disasters will gradually doom American efforts to dominate the world with military power.


But in general, I think this is a good thing. Since the end of the Cold War, the US military has become too big. And some Americans have grown too much in love with the worldwide American Military Empire.


It is time for America to realize that the world has changed. But truly, over the Futenma issue in Japan, America has shot it self in the foot, again.