Thursday, May 31, 2012

アメリカは原油輸出国に成りますか? Is America going to be an oil exporting country?

Some of my of my friends have been asking me about this.  A quick look at the net brought me comments from these two fast talking American financial analysts.


They talk on and on about American energy exports, which are mainly coal.  They ignore the fact that using coal is a suicide machine.  They talk about countries' whose economies are growing, and don't want to worry bout the environment.


Such talk is highly irresponsible.  I am 56 years old.  If I had a child now, it is not very likely that that child could reach my present age of 56.  This is because of the present strange weather caused by global warming.  Humans are facing extinction that soon.  Just look at how the weather gets more strange every year.  Eventually, the strange weather will mean that we cannot grow crops, and will starve.


But today, I want to talk about one aspect of the American conversation about oil, and this is shale oil.


First of all, it is not oil at all but a waxy material called Kerogen.  It can be converted to liquid, which can then be refined into petroleum products.


As we see in the above link, there has been interest in shale oil for about 100 years.  This is nothing new.


But also, the fact is that it requires too much energy to be commercially viable.  I doubt that average Americans would be able to afford it.  The American Middle class is in decline.  People are not going to be able to pay for increased fuel costs.


Another strong argument against shale oil is the process to turn in into liquid requires huge amounts of water.  And shale oil exists in Western states such as Colorado, Utah and Wyoming.


As I have written, America in total is turning to desert, these states are in regions that are already basically desert.


There is not enough water for people, where will the water for turning oil shale into petroleum come from?


The advocates of this process have no answer.


There is a phrase in America, "Beware of fast talking salesmen".  The meaning of this is, when people come and throw an idea at you, that you should buy something, and talk fast, they are not allowing you to think.  Just like the two financial analysts.


If one thinks and studies the concept of shale oil, we discover that it will not help save America.  And environmentally, it will disastrous.


I understand that without cheap energy, the Capitalist, and many non Capitalist countries will suffer greatly.  But this type of energy is extremely expensive, and hastens human extinction.


We need better ideas.  Frankly, I think that no matter what we do, economic hardship will be normal in this new age coming upon us.  People will die from various causes.


But while I have been writing that America will collapse and disappear as a civilization, Japan will survive.


Why do I think Japan will survive?  Well we have a nation wide electric train system, and nuclear power plants. 


And Japanese people are smarter, more socially cooperative, and harder working than Americans.  Of course, watching current events, I would say that the nuclear power plants must be nationalized.  Present management is obviously incapable.


And with all speed, we should develop renewable energy like tidal, solar, wind, etc.


But this is a project that is too important to leave to private industry.  Government will have to strongly supervise this.


But America is lost in their fantasy.  They keep searching for ways to continue their personal car life style.  And we are out of time.  America will pay for their mistake with disintegration of their nation.


In Japan, we should build the will to develop new energy sources as soon as possible, and strongly supervise the nuclear industry.  It will be needed until new energy sources can be developed.


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