Thursday, April 28, 2011

中近東革命とアメリカ崩壊 The Middle Eastern revolts and the collapse of America

The leadership of America is in panic. Japan suffers it's greatest natural disaster in 1,000 years, and the American Secretary of State can only spare a few hours to visit Tokyo to show her support, on her way back to the US from Korea.


Actually, I don't think she really meant such a short visit as an insult. The truth is, the situation of America is truly perilous. The price of oil has stubbornly refused to go back down, and has been over $100 a barrel for some months.


This means the end of America as a civilized nation. America totally depends on cheap oil for all transport, to be able to grow so much food so cheaply with so few people. And to transport it to cities for people to eat.


I have long watched Peak Oil, and I have long felt that it could destroy America in about 7 years or so. That would be time to try to construct some electric trains, or some kind of public transport system.


Unfortunately, the American Right is dead set against trains, calling them socialist.


In this editorial below, George Will, a respected commentator of the American Right, says that trains are of the past, they were modern 200 years ago.


Mr. Will refuses to consider the concepts of Peak Oil. He says that the plan to build high speed trains in America is in reality a secret plot by American Liberals to force Americans to abandon individual thinking, and force Americans to think collectively. He says that Liberals do this in order to force Socialism on America.


Mr. Will is one of the smarter people on the American Right. Yet here is this article, he is writing pure fantasy. I am really saddened by his refusal to understand.


Americans simply cannot except the idea that the age of personal automobiles is over. They keep looking for some miracle, like Tar Sands or offshore Brazilian oil fields.


Both sources of oil do exist, but they are incredibly difficult and expensive to extract, and they do not exist in the quantities needed to keep the American cars running.


There is no alternative to an electricity based public transport system, but Americans refuse to consider it.


The geologist M. King Hubbert first presented his theory of Peak Oil to the Shell Oil company in 1956. Back then, half of the people who heard the theory understood it, half panicked and denied that America would ever face a crisis.


But with the revolts in the Middle East, I think the US is out of time.


The reaction of the United States to these revolts certainly shows confusion.


The Obama administration went back and forth over whether to support President Mubarak of Egypt or the revolution.


There was mixed reaction to Libya's revolt, first, let us support in militarily.


But then couldn't make up their mind what to do.


In any case, America had no ability to intervene, only 1,200 Marines are immediately available for ground operations.

America is now overstretched. And Saudi Arabia is not at all stable.


Saudi Arabia has already sent troops into Bahrain. And demonstrations have already begun inside Saudi Arabia. When the leadership of Saudi Arabia changes, look for oil to be $150 plus. Maybe $200 a barrel.


The fact is, after America invaded Iraq in 2003, oil production has never been able to stay at pre invasion levels. Now Libyan oil is not being pumped. A revolt in Saudi Arabia would turn off the oil faucet. Which brings us to the fact that American foreign policy in the Middle East has been a total failure.


America will disappear into anarchy in days. This is not fantasy. The British government feared this in 2008. They called it "9 meals from anarchy"

America has a a similar "Just in Time" system. American supermarkets only stock three days of food in general. If supplies do not constantly come, they run out.


The United States faced a complete failure and disintegration of local civil authority in the Hurricane Katrina disaster.


American officials have learned that local law enforcement and local officials cannot be relied upon, so a Federal military command has been established.


Compare this to Japan in it's recent massive earthquake. In Japan local officials, police and fire personnel performed their jobs, even if they did know about the safety of their own families.


In America, in Hurricane Katrina, many such personnel did not report for duty but went home to take care of their families. I remember news clips on TV of people looting electronics stores in New Orleans as the Hurricane approached. Uniformed New Orleans police officers were among the thieves. Leading the way, breaking the window glass of the store.


But what if the disaster is not local, but the entire country? And with Peak Oil, it will not be a local disaster. Transportation will begin to fail nationwide.


I have a hunch that serious trouble will begin for the US in the fall of 2011. I really don't think that the entire nation will disintegrate in 3 days. I think it will be more like a year and a half for the entire nation to disintegrate. But trouble will start and will inexorably increase.


What will America look after the collapse? I think areas with natural water supplies and low population will survive somewhat intact. This will be the American Pacific Northwest, and the rural Great Lakes region, the rural areas of the American Northeast. However, cities in these areas will not survive. It will be impossible to deliver food to them.


Alaska will be relatively all right. Hawaii will starve, as there is no way they can produce enough food locally to feed the population.


Drought is increasing in America. The future for the American Southwest is hopeless in my opinion. Not enough water, and when food deliveries become impossible because fuel is too expensive, people there will not survive. Good bye Los Angeles. The region supported an Indian population of 3,000 when White people first arrived. That is the natural capacity of the land. Now more than ten million people live there. Water comes from as far as across the Rocky Mountains to supply Los Angeles. There is no longer enough.

The Great Plains states also show a tendency to revert to desert. They depend on one aquifer, it is being depleted faster than it is being replaced.


Americans are remarkably sanguine about these problems. I think this is because of the belief of American Exceptionalism. Americans think that things will turn out well simply because they are Americans.


Americans have not made any preparations whatsoever for the problems of Peak Oil and Global Warming. So far as I have seen, The Obama administrations proposal to build high speed trains is the only government proposal I have seen in this area.


And it has been destroyed by political fighting from the American Right, and American financial collapse. There is now no more time, and no more hope for American survival.


Americans themselves refuse to consider these problems. Abortion rights, whether President America was born in America and can truly serve as President, and Gay Marriage are still the biggest social issues. Americans argue about non important things while their nation collapses around them.


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