Tuesday, May 3, 2011

オサマ・ビンラディンの死  The death of Osama bin Laden

American commandos have finally found and killed Osama bin Laden, in revenge for the 9/11 attacks on America 10 years ago. Americans are ecstatic, waving flags in the streets.


Well, I can understand. The economy gets better for corporations but worse for people. Unemployment increases. The gap between rich and poor increases. America is now in three wars in the Middle East, and none of them are going well. So I can understand why Americans want something to cheer about.


But the truth is Americans in the streets waving flags also makes me feel very uneasy. I feel that some country, or group of people, are about to be attacked by Americans.


However, the death of Osama bin Laden changes nothing. It does not bring any kind of victory, or end to war. In fact, Al Qaeda never managed another attack after 9/11. Oh yes, there have been some terrorist incidents.


But these incidents have all had the mark of local people using local resources to make their bombs. This was true of the attacks in London Bali and Madrid. Al Qaeda was destroyed in part by the American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, where they lost their training camps.


The other factor in the destruction of Al Qaeda, and here I am guessing, but I think I am right. The other factor was the cooperation of the police forces of various countries in tracking down Al Qaeda personnel and their finances. The Al Qaeda personnel who survived went into hiding and became ineffective.


Americans have a fascination with leaders. They think that if a leader in country agrees with America, then that country will follow America's wishes. This is very true with Japan. For example the base problem in Okinawa. only recently have Americans begun to have a gradual awareness that no Japanese leader can build Henoko and survive an election. But in my heart I believe that America will still pressure Japan to build Henoko.


I remember when American commandos captured Saddam Hussein. People danced in the streets then too. People declared victory in Iraq. But nothing changed, in fact, things became worse. Today, the American position in Iraq is very weak, they are trying hard to keep an occupying force there beyond 2011 that Iraqi's don't want. I do not think America will succeed.


People are very worried about terrorist attacks. But for America, there is another big danger. That danger is the attitude of Pakistan. Most Pakistani's think of America as an enemy country.


This is in a large part because of American drone attacks inside Pakistan, that kill so many people not associatied with the Taliban. The link below shows that in six year period of drone stikes in Pakistan, America killed 30 Al Qaeda, 1,266 people not associated with Al Qaeda, and injured 445 people not associated with Al Qaeda. The attacks and deaths have since intensified greatly, with the same results.



A half year ago, US helicopters mistakenly killed Pakistani soldiers some 5 kilometers inside Pakistan. Pakistan then shut down the Torkham border crossing into Afghanistan for a few weeks. Fuel convoys for the NATO effort in Afghanistan were then attacked at depots throughout Pakistan.


There is another very serious factor involved. There is strong evidence that the Pakistani government, or certain parts of it, have been sheltering Osama bin Laden for six years. The house where Osama bin Laden had been staying for six years was in a very secure military are of Pakistan. It is improbable that nobody knew about it.


If this is true, well then Pakistan, or people in Pakistan, can be expected to make a strong reaction against America. I am very uneasy about how American military forces violated the sovereignty of Pakistan. Would they do the same in Japan? That is a very serious question, we have many American forces in Japan.


I can understand the desire to kill Bin Laden. I have no sympathy for him, he was a terrorist and an outlaw who is responsible for the death of many people. But I think it would have been better if America had chosen a more covert method, such as disguising American commandos as Pakistanis', to kill him.


Going in by helicopter, and announcing to the world it was America, is sure to invite revenge.


1 comment:

B. said...

Here a good BBC documentary, which basically says everything: http://personalgrowthcourses.net/video/power_of_nightmares_bbc
The "Al CIAda", as people call it nowadays, never existed and I actually believe, that OBL hasn't been assassinated as recently announced. He most likely died already several years ago from a natural disease. DNA tests within less than a week ? His body quickly dumped into the sea ? The "boogeyman" became useless and Obama needed a political scenario for a smooth and clean retreat without loosing his face. The boogeyman is dead, the war has been won, let's go home ... and find a new evildoer ... maybe ;-)) Became more and more difficult to keep the people believing this whole Al CIAda anymore anyway.