Thursday, May 31, 2012

アメリカは原油輸出国に成りますか? Is America going to be an oil exporting country?

Some of my of my friends have been asking me about this.  A quick look at the net brought me comments from these two fast talking American financial analysts.


They talk on and on about American energy exports, which are mainly coal.  They ignore the fact that using coal is a suicide machine.  They talk about countries' whose economies are growing, and don't want to worry bout the environment.


Such talk is highly irresponsible.  I am 56 years old.  If I had a child now, it is not very likely that that child could reach my present age of 56.  This is because of the present strange weather caused by global warming.  Humans are facing extinction that soon.  Just look at how the weather gets more strange every year.  Eventually, the strange weather will mean that we cannot grow crops, and will starve.


But today, I want to talk about one aspect of the American conversation about oil, and this is shale oil.


First of all, it is not oil at all but a waxy material called Kerogen.  It can be converted to liquid, which can then be refined into petroleum products.


As we see in the above link, there has been interest in shale oil for about 100 years.  This is nothing new.


But also, the fact is that it requires too much energy to be commercially viable.  I doubt that average Americans would be able to afford it.  The American Middle class is in decline.  People are not going to be able to pay for increased fuel costs.


Another strong argument against shale oil is the process to turn in into liquid requires huge amounts of water.  And shale oil exists in Western states such as Colorado, Utah and Wyoming.


As I have written, America in total is turning to desert, these states are in regions that are already basically desert.


There is not enough water for people, where will the water for turning oil shale into petroleum come from?


The advocates of this process have no answer.


There is a phrase in America, "Beware of fast talking salesmen".  The meaning of this is, when people come and throw an idea at you, that you should buy something, and talk fast, they are not allowing you to think.  Just like the two financial analysts.


If one thinks and studies the concept of shale oil, we discover that it will not help save America.  And environmentally, it will disastrous.


I understand that without cheap energy, the Capitalist, and many non Capitalist countries will suffer greatly.  But this type of energy is extremely expensive, and hastens human extinction.


We need better ideas.  Frankly, I think that no matter what we do, economic hardship will be normal in this new age coming upon us.  People will die from various causes.


But while I have been writing that America will collapse and disappear as a civilization, Japan will survive.


Why do I think Japan will survive?  Well we have a nation wide electric train system, and nuclear power plants. 


And Japanese people are smarter, more socially cooperative, and harder working than Americans.  Of course, watching current events, I would say that the nuclear power plants must be nationalized.  Present management is obviously incapable.


And with all speed, we should develop renewable energy like tidal, solar, wind, etc.


But this is a project that is too important to leave to private industry.  Government will have to strongly supervise this.


But America is lost in their fantasy.  They keep searching for ways to continue their personal car life style.  And we are out of time.  America will pay for their mistake with disintegration of their nation.


In Japan, we should build the will to develop new energy sources as soon as possible, and strongly supervise the nuclear industry.  It will be needed until new energy sources can be developed.


Friday, May 25, 2012

TPP反対のアメリカ上院議員 American opposition to TPP

Well, another powerful American Senator, Ron Wyden, is turning against TPP in America.  His primary worry is that it is not strong enough to force other countries to buy American goods.


Why am I so against TPP?  I am afraid it will destroy Japan's way of life.  In particular, I am concerned about Japanese dependence on American agriculture, and about American insurance companies operating in Japan.


As I have written in my blog, climate change is wreaking havoc in America.


In my blog post, I have predicted starvation in America in a few years.  I may be off in my prediction, by a couple of years or so.  But the end result that most of the North American continent will become desert.


And the present American population cannot possibly be fed if the continent becomes desert.


Here is a computer generated study.


A closer look at the maps


American insurance is a terrible business.  When 60% of personal bankruptcies are due to health problems, I think something is wrong with that country.  For the average American, costs are just too high.


I fear that American corporations will find some way to destroy the Japanese National Health Insurance system.  They regard it as Socialist, and anything Socialist must be destroyed.


And then, the average Japanese person will become as poor and miserable as Americans are becoming now.


Americans are being squeezed by American corporations.  The "Occupy Wall Street" movement has taken on very left wing, Communistic tones.  They are setting themselves up to be a revolutionary party.


And corporate America is to blame.  The change of wealth in America has produced a hopeless situation for too many people.  In fact, I will say here that the top 1% of Americans are stupid, they do not study history.  When the majority of people in a nation feel hopeless, that they cannot live, they revolt.


I do not want this to happen to Japan.  And if American corporations are allowed free access to Japan, this is what will happen.


Some Japanese companies, particularly Japanese auto manufacturers, have hopes that TTP will allow them access to American markets.


I don't think so.  American business is no longer about fairness.  If American companies will destroy the life of average American people through fraudulent loans and inflated health insurance costs, they will certainly destroy Japanese corporations.


Does not Toyota remember the brake problem issue of a few years ago?


The truth was, when the US government investigated, it found all the accidents involved were due to human error.


It is my personal belief that this incident was a dirty trick by the American car industry against Toyota. 


In general, American people think that Japan is an unfair country when it comes to trade.  They are still angry about the 1980's, they feel that Japan did not open it's market.


I have had some experience in business between America and Japan.  Some 25 years ago, I was very deeply involved in opening an American ice cream franchise in Japan.


In general, I can say this.  Americans do not study other countries at all.  They expect to sell their product as it is.    In America, the ice cream was frozen into cardboard tubes.  When the tubes were cut, pieces of cardboard would get into the ice cream, and into the product served to the customer.


The American side just could not understand that this would be a huge problem in Japan, that Japanese people are very concerned about food quality and purity.


President Obama has already said that there will be no negotiation with Japan over TPP.  He means it, what the American side is saying is accept all American conditions without negotiation.


It means surrender.  And the complaint of Senator Wyden in the link above is that TPP is not strong enough in forcing other countries to buy American.


It is an election year in America, and the President will be under much pressure to show that he is tough on trade, and protecting Americans.  This is the worst time to attempt trade negotiations, it would be wise to wait until after the American elections.


Friday, May 18, 2012

F-35はでたらめ、日本は購入しない方がいい! The F-35 is a real dog, a boondoggle, Japan should not buy it.

I have read that Japan intends to buy four F-35 fighter jets from the US this June.


Well first of all the plane does not exist.  It is not built yet.  And according to more and more American analysts, it will likely never be built at all.


F-35 photo


I found this article on the Mother Jones web site.  They wonder if the Pentagon can still build any kind of of aircraft.

最近、Mother Jonesのサイトで、この記事を見つけました。アメリカ軍が本当に軍機を造れるかと疑問視しています。

However, let us be clear about something.  The proposal to buy the F-35 is is to immediately replace the F-4, which are now quite old.  Japan now has 117 F-4's in it's inventory.


I remember the F-4 from my Marine Corps days.  All Marines loved it.  It was a bomber, an air superiority fighter, a reconnaissance aircraft.  It could do everything, and everything well.  And it was built by America.  The F-15, which is also in Japan's Air Force, was also built by America.  And it is a well proven airplane.


So what is the problem?  In this blog post, I will examine the problems with the F-22 and the F-35.


First, let us look at an aircraft that does exist, the F-22.


Reading the above link, basically the F-22 needs 30 hours of maintenance for every hour of flight.  When it first came out, I read figures of 150 hours for every hour of flight.  Well that is better.


F-22 photo


But keep reading the link.  The airplane cannot fly in the rain, because that destroys it's stealth skin.  And it can only fly an average of 1.7 hours before major problems develop.


Also, many US Air Force pilots are refusing to fly the plane.  they complain of hypoxia, which is a lack of oxygen to the brain.  There is a problem with the plane's oxygen system, without oxygen, pilots lose consciousness and crash.


There have been several crashes due to this problem.  The Air Force says that it is not a serious problem, yet all aircraft were grounded for investigation for 5 months in 2011.  They were not able to discover the cause of the problem.


As I remember, originally the number of aircraft was planned to be something like 2,500.  Production was stopped at 188.  Yet the greatest evidence that something is wrong here is the fact that the US military have never used the F-22 in combat.


Combat use is invaluable for a weapon.  Yet America has never used this plane in Iraq or Afghanistan.  The more I read about this airplane, the more I think it is useless as a combat aircraft.


Now let us look at the F-35.


It is way behind schedule, and the US military is now declining to predict when it will ever reach production.  Let me mention some facts from the above link.  In air to air fighting, the F-35 is inferior to the F-16, and in bombing, it does not have the range of the F-15.  In close combat support, it is very inferior to the A-10.


It will have the same extreme maintenance difficulties of the F-22, so flying time will be very limited.


And as far as "stealth" goes, let me quote from the above link:




It has limited detection against some radars at some angles.




What this means is that it is not invisible to radar, merely difficult to detect.  With multiple radars at multiple locations, detection should be possible.


And I have made little mention of costs.  Taking a look again at this link, on the first page, it is written that the total costs of producing this aircraft will be more than the GDP of Spain.


And the link also says, 80% of the tests for the F-35 have not been performed yet, so inevitably more problems will arise, that will add to the final cost.


I think that both the F-22 and F-35 were too complex from the beginning.  Certainly Lockheed stands to make a lot of money from these planes.  Yet the more I read, the more I see an aircraft that is too delicate to fight in a war.


From what I see, the best that can be expected from these planes is that they will fly once in the beginning of a potential war.  The few aircraft that are not destroyed on the ground by enemy counter strikes with missiles and aircraft might make another flight or two.  The long maintenance time required after every flight makes them vulnerable.


But that is not enough to win or even fight a war.  Japan will need aircraft that can perform continuously.  In any weather.  The F-15 is already equal or better than anything that China actually possesses. 


So why build more new and improved F-15's?  Americans involved in the development of the American stealth program argue that for America to continue dominance, it must develop aircraft better than any possible enemy.  Before they do.


However, for Japan, we are not trying to dominate the world.  We merely need weapon systems that are better than our immediate neighbors.


I think for defense, a greater number of less expensive F-15's, which are much more reliable than the F-22 or the F-35, makes more sense.


Yes, I know that China has tested a stealth fighter.  And Russia has one under design.  But with Japan's superior industrial ability, if China seriously began to develop stealth aircraft, we could out produce them.


Personally, I think for Japanese defense it is much more important to create a Japanese Marine division, and to increase the number of Japanese submarines.  And we should get some British harriers for our Navy's Ise and Hyuga.


Photo of Japan's first post WWII aircraft carrier, the Hyuga.


America is going bankrupt building expensive weapon systems that don't work, that cannot function in a war.  Japan should not follow that same path.


Wednesday, May 16, 2012

”ウォール街を占拠せよ!”は5月1日作戦開始でした。 Occupy Wall Street began a New Year of activity on May 1st.

The May 1st 2012 Occupy protests were nation wide.


As you can see from the above map, the protests did indeed occur through out the country, from East coast to West coast.


For the interactive version of the above map, please go to the following link:


In California there was violence,


and police armored vehicles,


While thousands gathered in New York City's Union Square.


The Main Stream Media in both America and Japan did not pay much attention to these protests.  And it is true, some of the more flamboyant protests, such as closing off San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge, were called off.


But I think something significant has happened here.  All through the winter of 2011/2012, I wrote that they were training for protests this year.


That was not the only thing they were doing.  They were reaching out to the Labor Unions.


Traditionally, the American Democratic Party has been the ally of organized labor.  But as the American Republican party is drifting into a loony religious right wing party, the Democratic party has been drifting to the center, with closer ties with big business.


And the American right has made strong efforts to destroy Labor Unions of all kinds.


So this is perhaps a natural alliance, and perhaps the beginning of a true and genuine political third force in America.


Here is an essay by an American I respect, Noam Chomsky.


He writes how he is old enough to remember the difficult times of The Great Depression.  How when things were very bad then, people had hope that they would get better. 


But today, the people have no hope.  And he describes the wording of a brochure from Citigroup, which is very clear that their services are only for the 1%.  The brochure speaks of the rest of Americans, in fact of the citizens of the rest of the world, as something less than human, creatures who only exist to support the whims of the rich.


Since President Reagan, rich people have gained much more wealth in America.  The right wing Republican party promised that this would bring a prosperous America.  Instead, what they have created is an America with 99% of the population in an underclass, with no hope of a decent future life.


In my opinion, this is a revolutionary situation.  The May 1st protests were orderly, and from the protesters side, basically non violent.  For example, the plan to close down the Golden Gate bridge was called off because the bridge workers union felt it would cause too much inconvenience.


I can see why the American media did not expend much coverage of Occupy Wall Street events, I think the ruling political establishment of the United States is scared.