Saturday, April 28, 2012

小沢さんの無罪判決と、これから日米関係の地震的な変化について(プラス:”ウォール街を占拠せよ!”作戦は5月1日に始まる予定です。) The Ozawa not guilty verdict, and the coming Seismic change in Japanese/American relations

The trial is finally over, and Mr. Ozawa has been judged not guilty.  Well, to me, the trial always seemed politically motivated.  Mr. Ozawa was the architect of the 2009 victory of the DPJ over the LDP.  The Ozawa/Hatoyama partnership wished for a more equal relationship between the US and Japan.  In particular, they wanted to find an alternative to the proposed US Marine base at Henoko in Okinawa.


Since the end of WWII, the Japanese/American relationship has come to resemble a colonial relationship, with America as the colonial master.  Certainly, remarks by Gerald Curtis concerning the Ishin kai are very paternalistic.


What Mr. Curtis fails to realize, is that times have changed.  I believe that most of the American political establishment, including the President does not realize this, and also many Japanese leaders are not aware of the change.


It is easy to identify such Japanese leaders, they are anyone who keeps insisting that things continue as they always have, that Japan keep on worshiping America.


Americans have always thought of Japanese people as a dangerous nation, who must be dominated by Americans.  Well, they think of Germans in this way also.


I was very surprised at the rudeness exhibited by President Obama to former Prime Minister Hatoyama.  President Obama was angry at former Prime Minister Hatoyama's plan about the Futenma base.    When former Prime Minister Hatoyama came to speak to the President at a state dinner, the President totally ignored him, rudely.  The incident was caught on camera.


Such an action is an insult to all Japanese.  Now, sources I read in Washington, the only thing they care about Prime Minister Noda is if he can satisfy American demands.  They have seem to have little comprehension about the feelings of the Japanese people over TPP or the Futenma problem.  All they want is complete obedience from Prime Minister Noda.


Americans have no respect for Prime Minister Noda as the leader of a free and independent country.


I always have been mystified by Japanese people who think that Japan should follow America in every respect.  America will not act out of Japanese interest, they will act out of American interest.  Well, naturally any country would.  Yet I still meet Japanese people, who say that Japan must sacrifice it's natural interest to America.  For example, I know people who believe that Japan should join TPP, and sacrifice the national economy, for American military protection.


Yet America will NOT defend Japan in case of a possible Chinese intrusion into the Senkaku islands.  The truth is, America will always value a connection with China over Japan.  Americans will never respect Japan.  One main reason for US troops staying so long in Japan is so that Japan does not invade the rest of Asia.


They do not care or understand that Japan was a peaceful nation in the Edo era, and for 250 years did not invade anyone.  The invasion of Korea by Toyotomi were an exception.  America, for it's entire 250 year existence, has almost always been at war somewhere.


I see some articles like the one below.


They keep saying that US Marines are needed for deterrence.  Yet the numbers of fighting Marines are given only as 7,000, 2,200 in the 31st MEU, another 5,000 from the 3rd Marine division.


Frankly, with numbers as small as that, they are a trip wire force.  That means America would be involved.  But Japan is in truth very strong militarily.  We have the 8th ranked military in the world.  We really do not need to have US troops constantly in Japan.


I am quite aware of the tensions with China.


The primary current problem is the Chinese claim to virtually the entire South China sea.


I see this problem as similar to copyright problems in China, such as the Chinese disneyland.


What we need is a combination of firmness backed by military strength, and patient negotiation.  However, in problems like this, America can sometimes be over provocative.


America is behaving like an Imperial bully by sending warships into China's 200 mile EEZ.


However, domestically, America truly is in a mess.  I have read of a plan where Japanese troops are to be based in the Philippines and other Asian locations.


Actually, I think this is a good idea.  For the future, it will be good for Japan to have military cooperation with other Asian nations.  But it surprised me.  In America, where I grew up, they never trusted Japanese people.  Americans at the time of my childhood would NEVER think of deploying Japanese troops outside of Japan.  There can only be one reason for this now.  America is too weak, they will try to use Japan to protect America. 


Frankly, I don't think that we will ever see more ground troops out of America in an emergency than those that are here now.  America is too broke financially, and is about to experience massive domestic unrest.  They just will not be able to deploy troops from the American mainland.


I have written about how drought and Peak oil are destroying America.




Peak OIl


Where is Occupy Wall Street?


Occupy Wall Street has not been in the news much lately.  Perhaps some people in Japan might think that the movement is over, that young Americans have given up on activism.


Not at all, they have been studying, training for this summer.


In fact, major demonstrations are planning for 40 cities across America on May 1st.  This includes a plan to shut down San Francisco's Golden Gate bridge.


The life of the average American has become miserable.  Japanese people are aware of the housing difficulties, and decline of the Middle Class.  Recently, I have read of average American families turning to smuggling Marijuana to survive.


To average Americans, Marijuana is not an evil drug.  But it is still illegal.  Yet many Americans are finding that to keep their house, keep their children in school, or even to feed them, they must grow and sell Marijuana to survive.


That is a criminal act, but they feel they have no choice.  Somewhere I have read, that Americans tolerate income disparity for only one reason.  That is, the average American thinks that they have the chance to become rich someday also.


If you destroy this belief, the average American will revolt.


Well American corporations for the last 30 years or so have been busy destroying the laws that protect average people, and they have created a revolutionary situation.


With Peak Oil and Climate change induced drought, we have reached a position where people are not surviving.


All of these problems will now explode.  In Japan, we are going to have to rearrange the Japanese/American relationship.  It is time.  And America will no longer be a great nation with world wide power.  It is swiftly becoming a local country.  And I think the odds are it will split into several nations.


In the future of the world, there will not longer be a super power that can put military force anywhere in the world.  There will be several regional powers.  In the North Asian region, That is Japan, China and Russia.  Russia's center is Europe.  China actually has great internal problems, both social problems, and drought.


South Korea has the great problem of North Korea.


That leaves Japan.  We have the geographical position, and the hard working populace, to be the dominant nation in North Asia.  It is time to chart our own independent course.


Of course, I wish for cordial relations with the United States.  But I do not wish to be dominated.  Americans, well Americans in government will be angry with me.  But I think average Americans will agree with me.  They have had enough of greedy corporations destroying their life.


It is time for Japan to be our own country.  And we will need leaders like Ozawa Ichiro, someone with a better plan than to simply obey America.


Tuesday, April 24, 2012

北朝鮮のロケット打ち上げについて About the North Korean rocket launch

I did not write about the North Korean rocket launch last week.  There was just too much hype.  First of all, let's cease playing word games.  A rocket and missile a practically the same thing.  When America sent two men space capsules into space, they were lifted by the Titan II.  The same rocket also was used by the United States Air Force to carry nuclear warheads.



In case, predictably, the launch failed spectacularly.  Looking at pictures of the North Korean launch center, it was very primitive.


Please scroll down the above link for film of the North Korean mission control center.


And the rocket blew up about a minute or so into flight.  However, I think the Japanese government missed a great opportunity to gather intelligence by refusing to let JAXA attend the launch.


They were invited by North Korea.  If I were the Prime Minister of Japan, I would have sent a team that was 30% JAXA, and 70% SDF officers.  I am not so concerned by the North Korean missiles.  As we see, they are primitive.


But a chance to see what is really going on at ground level in North Korea, that would have been priceless.  The state of towns and the city, the general physique of the people, farming methods, (on TV, I saw people in the fields with no farming equipment)


The train carrying the reporters to the launch site from Pyongyang went very slowly.  This suggests a rail roadbed in very poor condition, and can tell us a lot about the true state of North Korea.


Also, this would have given Japanese officials a chance to personally express our concerns about the issue of abducted Japanese persons.


In any case, Kim Jong Un took a big risk in letting foreign reporters.  And admitting the launch failure.  Well, even in attempting the launch.  Thinking about the whole episode, I think North Korea is in real bad shape, and may fall apart soon.


The Japanese government took a very big risk in sending out PAC-3 missile teams and Aegis vessels to shoot down the North Korean rocket in case of trouble.


First of all, it is nearly impossible to shoot down an incoming nuclear missile when the course is known.  When I was a child, Anti Ballistic missile systems were abandoned for this reason.  Some people might say that technology has improved since then, but the problem is not really technology.


The whole problem is like shooting an incoming bullet with another bullet.  It is impossible.  There is little time to react, to think about what to do.


And a malfunctioning falling rocket, well the path it would take would be impossible to predict or intercept.


In 1988, the crew of a US warship in the Persian Gulf shot down an Iranian airliner by mistake.  They thought they were under attack.


In any case, if any pieces of the rocket were in danger of falling onto Japanese territory, hitting them with a missile would not destroy them, causing vaporization, they would cause it break up into smaller pieces which would still fall somewhere.


So everybody, please be assured.  We don't need to fear an attack by North Korean.  They can't.  The greatest danger that North Korea presents to the region is the possibility of collapse.  And eventually, that is bound to happen.


Wednesday, April 4, 2012

アメリカ、砂漠の国 America, the desert land

America is becoming a desert land. There have always been deserts in America, but now they are spreading rapidly. Soon, the majority of territory in the Continental States of America will be desert.


What will this mean? One quick answer, the population of America will rapidly decrease. American agriculture will decline, and will be unable to support the present population. America will cease to be a food exporting country. And the people who survive will have a much lower standard of living than today.


What does this mean for Japan? Well, right now a proposal to join the TPP is being discussed in Japan. Basically, this would reduce Japan's food self sufficiency, now at about 40%, to something like 13%.


Japan would become dependent upon America for food. But when America turns to desert, what will Japan do then? In this blog post, I will show that the future of American agriculture is one of disintegration.


As I see it, drought in the Continental United States is centered in three regions.


The American West.


The Great Plains States.


The American Southeast.


I will discuss each of these in turn.


First, let us look at the drought monitor published by the US Department of Agriculture.


I have been watching this monitor every week for some three years. Every year the Western drought gets worse. Last summer drought seriously increased in Texas, Oklahoma, and parts of Kansas. It remained serious through the winter.


Georgia has had serious drought for several years, this year it has expanded to Florida, and the Carolina's are also experiencing serious drought.


This summer is looking like it will be a terrible time for America. The winter has been abnormally warm, disastrously so.


In the above link, even the President is worried. But it is too late. The effects of the drought are here now, and they will last a long time. Scientists are talking about drought lasting 1,000 years in North America.


And the scientists are talking about famine. In America.


A photo essay of the American drought.

Now let us look at the three drought regions in detail.


The American West.


The American West has always been a dream for Americans. The romantic image of the cowboy, perhaps the ultimate symbol of American freedom. When Americans settled this region starting some 150 years ago, they did not realize or care that it is a very delicate ecosystem. They simply assumed they could live in the same way as they did in regions east of the Mississippi river.


The dominant terrain of the American West is desert. Indian civilizations had existed some 800 years ago in Arizona, they disappeared in times of drought.


There is only one sizable river in the region, the Colorado river. 80 years ago it flowed from the Rocky mountains to the Pacific ocean, but today, it no longer reaches the sea.


The usage of the river water was negotiated back in the 1920's, with various US states receiving rights to various amounts of water, by population, and Mexico getting an allotment. Yet what scientists today are realizing, this was an abnormally wet era. The water levels in the river are falling dramatically.


Since then, population in the region has exploded. For example, in 1940, the deep desert city of Las Vegas Nevada had a population of 8,422.


Today it is 594,051.

The American lifestyle has never concerned itself about limits. Americans always assume they can live as they please, use as many resources as they want, simply because they are Americans.


Here is a website telling Americans how to create a grass lawn in Las Vegas.

However, in it's natural state, Las Vegas is deep desert. Grass comes from lands east of the Mississippi, it is not native to western deserts. There is not enough water for it to survive. And really, swimming pools are not suitable for deserts either.


Where does western water come from? A lot comes from the snowpack. This is part of the miracle that saved the west last year.


But the snowpack is in rapid decline, due to global warming.

This year the snowpack in the West is very low.


Another great threat is the destruction of forests. Global warming has caused insects to migrate farther north. They are destroying forests as they go.


Also, mismanagement of forests, increased temperatures, and increased human presence has contributed to forest fires. If the forests of the west disappear, the result will be quicker run off of rainfall, and deserts will increase faster.


The Great Plains states.


When white people first came to the Great Plains states, It was steppe, grassland. The truth is, such a region is close to becoming desert. However, a massive underground water source, the Ogallala aquifer, was discovered.


This aquifer was created about 3 million years ago.


It was the water of this aquifer, which enabled Americans to take a semi arid region, and transform it into a major agricultural and cattle production area.


The problem here is, the conditions that created the aquifer changed 3 million years ago. The water is not being replaced fast enough to maintain the usage that is happening today.


When we look at the above map and the drought monitor, we can see that the states of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas are in extreme drought. They have pretty much used up their Ogallala water, now there is no more water.


In Nebraska, the aquifer is deeper, they have a few more years left, then the water will be gone.


The entire region of the Great Plains States will change from a center of agricultural production to desert.


The American Southeast.


Here the problem for the southeast is again man made. I have discussed this in two previous blog posts. The basic problem as I see it here is that the urban sprawl of Atlanta has created a massive heat island that is drying out the American Southeast.

The roof gardens and repainting of parking lots in water absorbent pavement I mention in the above link is politically impossible. Right wingers would attack it as socialism.


Looking at the drought monitor, this year, for the first time, I have seen a further deterioration in this region.


I have read some theories by scientists that the entire Florida peninsula is in truth like a giant river system. Salt water is denser than fresh water. It is the pressure of this fresh water flow that has enabled such big coastal cities as Miami and Tampa to exist.


Now we are seeing salt water intrusion into the aquifers of southeastern Florida.

Well logic will tell us, if the drought in the state of Georgia is severe, the amount of freshwater flowing south into Florida will decrease. Eventually, the denser saltwater from the sea will flow into the aquifers.


And people cannot drink seawater.


In time, the coastal cities of Florida will have to find new water sources. Yet, with major drought underway, will they find new sources? I doubt it.


It is the same story as in other regions of America, rapidly decreasing amounts of available water, and too many people.


Last year, there were crop failures across America due to extreme heat and drought.

Yet this event received little coverage in the American National media.


This is not a new or surprising phenomena. Scientists have long been warning about drought. Yet Americans either ignore them, or even go so far as to threaten to kill the scientists.


I keep talking about how Americans put a priority on their consumer lifestyle beyond all else, but it is true. They have ignored the drought problem along with climate change for too long.


It is this intentional ignorance that allows American corporations to say that Japan should join TPP and buy American food in the future. They simply ignore the scientific fact that there will be no food.


What will happen this year? I am guessing. But I think we will see a massive amount of forest fires in the US. When the forests of various regions disappear, it will accelerate the return to desert. Also, I think in this year, we will see food shortages in the US, leading to serious price rises.


In 2013, and 2014, we will see famine, and people dying across the US from starvation.


A friend sent me this article, the President of the US has authorized himself to declare martial law in case of emergency.

The problem here is not Iran, it is oil depletion and drought. I have myself concluded from various things read on the net that the US government is extremely worried. Hurricane Katrina of 2005 showed us that Civil Authority in the US disintegrates quickly in the case of natural disaster.


In the coming US disasters, the American military will be the only organization capable of preserving order. Frankly, I think the coming disasters will be so massive that even the US military may not succeed. But that will be America's only chance of preserving civilization.


And I think the best chance of preserving civilization will be in regions with natural water supply. This will be the Great Lakes region, the Northeast, and the Pacific Northwest. The rest of America, well they won't have much chance.


For Japan, I think it will be suicidal to depend on America for food. For the future of Japan, I think the government should be preparing plans on how to increase domestic food production. This will become necessary to preserve Japanese civilization.