Tuesday, April 24, 2012

北朝鮮のロケット打ち上げについて About the North Korean rocket launch

I did not write about the North Korean rocket launch last week.  There was just too much hype.  First of all, let's cease playing word games.  A rocket and missile a practically the same thing.  When America sent two men space capsules into space, they were lifted by the Titan II.  The same rocket also was used by the United States Air Force to carry nuclear warheads.




In case, predictably, the launch failed spectacularly.  Looking at pictures of the North Korean launch center, it was very primitive.



Please scroll down the above link for film of the North Korean mission control center.


And the rocket blew up about a minute or so into flight.  However, I think the Japanese government missed a great opportunity to gather intelligence by refusing to let JAXA attend the launch.


They were invited by North Korea.  If I were the Prime Minister of Japan, I would have sent a team that was 30% JAXA, and 70% SDF officers.  I am not so concerned by the North Korean missiles.  As we see, they are primitive.


But a chance to see what is really going on at ground level in North Korea, that would have been priceless.  The state of towns and the city, the general physique of the people, farming methods, (on TV, I saw people in the fields with no farming equipment)


The train carrying the reporters to the launch site from Pyongyang went very slowly.  This suggests a rail roadbed in very poor condition, and can tell us a lot about the true state of North Korea.


Also, this would have given Japanese officials a chance to personally express our concerns about the issue of abducted Japanese persons.


In any case, Kim Jong Un took a big risk in letting foreign reporters.  And admitting the launch failure.  Well, even in attempting the launch.  Thinking about the whole episode, I think North Korea is in real bad shape, and may fall apart soon.


The Japanese government took a very big risk in sending out PAC-3 missile teams and Aegis vessels to shoot down the North Korean rocket in case of trouble.


First of all, it is nearly impossible to shoot down an incoming nuclear missile when the course is known.  When I was a child, Anti Ballistic missile systems were abandoned for this reason.  Some people might say that technology has improved since then, but the problem is not really technology.


The whole problem is like shooting an incoming bullet with another bullet.  It is impossible.  There is little time to react, to think about what to do.


And a malfunctioning falling rocket, well the path it would take would be impossible to predict or intercept.


In 1988, the crew of a US warship in the Persian Gulf shot down an Iranian airliner by mistake.  They thought they were under attack.



In any case, if any pieces of the rocket were in danger of falling onto Japanese territory, hitting them with a missile would not destroy them, causing vaporization, they would cause it break up into smaller pieces which would still fall somewhere.


So everybody, please be assured.  We don't need to fear an attack by North Korean.  They can't.  The greatest danger that North Korea presents to the region is the possibility of collapse.  And eventually, that is bound to happen.


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