Friday, September 10, 2010

とりあえず、イランとすぐ戦争に成る事は有りません。 The war that didn't happen yet.    

On this blog, in my post "The future of American and Japanese military relations", I wrote about the possibility of America attacking Iran, and how Japan could be pulled into such a war on America's side. And I wrote how detrimental such a war would be for Japan.


Well for the time being, the possibility of war with Iran has been averted. President Obama has firmly told Israel and American Neocons that Iran is not about to create a nuclear weapon.


There is a definite group of people in the US, the American Neocons, who have long been in favor of a war with Iran. John Bolton, the former ambassador to the United Nations under the Bush administration, was the most recent spokesman of this group.


These American Neocons can be thought of "The powers behind the throne" in American politics. They had a very direct effect in leading America into war against Iraq. And many Americans, despite the evidence, still believe that war to be a success, at least a partial success.


In any case, war with Iran would be very different than Iraq. America would lose.


For an estimate of how badly America would lose, please read my article of 2007. It is still applicable today.


"On potential casualties in Iran."
And let us not forget that an attack on Iran would mean the price of oil would spike to something like $200 the very next day.


Neocons tried very hard to President Clinton to attack Iraq. They failed there. It was easy to get President Bush to allow an attack after 9/11. Now, they are putting extreme pressure on President Obama to make war with Iran. For the time being, they have failed.


However, these Neocons, despite the failure of the Iraq war, have not lost influence in America. Most Americans believe that some good came out of the Iraq war.


The truth is Iraq is an awful mess because of the American invasion. But the American people would rather not think about this deeply.


I believe President Obama to be basically a decent man, an intelligent man. But like all recent Democratic Presidents, he faces pressure from the American Right wing that he is weak on foreign enemies.

私はオバマ大統領は礼儀正しい、知的な人と思います。けれど、最近のアメリカ民主党大統領と同じ様に、アメリカ右派から外国の敵に弱いと非難 されています。

Of course, America has really not had an enemy for 20 years, since the collapse of the Soviet Union. But the American Right wing has abandoned reality and withdrawn into emotional fantasy.


So the American President is forced to continuously fight off these Right calls to go to war against some country.


I do not think it is in Japan's interest to join US wars in the Middle East. They are doomed to failure. The Neocon goals for these wars are to allow Israel to dominate the Palestinian people, and to dominate the region's oil supplies. Both goals have ended in failure.


The irony is, American culture has a lot of attraction for many people through out the world. America would have done much better to let American culture spread around the world by natural means, instead of invading other countries.


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