Thursday, June 17, 2010

メキシコ湾の原油流出とアメリカ崩壊の可能性 The Gulf of Mexico oil spill and the possibility of American collapse

Hello to my readers. I have often mentioned in my writing, the idea of Civil War in America. I have discussed the American Christian Fundamentalist movement, and their desire to create revolution in America.


I have discussed American financial collapse.


I have long been intending to write a blog post tying these separate threads together, and to explain how an American Civil War will occur. I have felt that what was necessary for Civil War would be what I call a "Trigger Event". This is a catastrophe that destroys organized society, and thusly creates the environment for Civil War to occur.


I have always felt that this trigger event would be drought caused by Global Warming. This drought would become so severe that the American Southwest would become unihabitable by 90% of the present population. These people would move or die, creating tremendous stresses in American society, and Civil War.


I have always felt that this event will come in 5 to 7 years from now. Well, let me tell you, it is still on schedule. The severity of drought is increasing, and America is facing the prospect of crop failure on a large scale.


But this is still some years ahead. There is a little time for government to wake up and make plans, if they have the sense to do so.


But I think right now, we have an immediate trigger event, the Deepwater Horizon oil leak. And I think this crisis will bring us to Civil War and domestic disintigration in America within 12 to 18 months.


I have written about this event before on this blog:


And a simulation of the extent of the slick by the end of summer.


With this oil leak, I do believe we have our trigger event.


Before I proceed, let me define what I think this Civil War will entail. I do not really see massive lines of two armies attacking each other like in the previous American Civil War of 1861 to 1865.


In America, we say this is a conflict between Blue State Liberals versus Red State Conservatives. The division is not so neat and clean. It is much more rural versus urban.


A look at a map of the 2008 Presidential election shows this division.

I think we will have numerous incidents of violence across the nation as Gulf refugees seek somewhere to go. Eventually, many US government organizations will become unable to fulfill their functions, the police and military will not be completely loyal. The President could fall or become irrelevant.


The Red Conservatives will have Christian Fundamentalism as an organizing force on there side. In general, they are rural people, and gun owners. They have some experience of an out door life. Many Reds have military experience. Blue liberals are urban, more educated. But they have no comparable unifying force or philosophy like Christian Fundamentalism. Their religious beliefs are generally mild, if they exist at all.


The Reds are more likely to win.
But let us return to our trigger event in the Gulf of Mexico.

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In my previous blog post in May, I have demonstrated how BP cut corners by not installing comprehensive safety systems. And what they did have did not work.


The American government has basically left the clean up effort to BP. However, BP has shown amazing incompetence. Booms to contain oil are not properly anchored, and drift away. They have been found several meters out of the water in swamp grasses they were supposed to protect.


BP is still using local Police forces and the United States Coast Guard to limit media access. Yet a pair of reporters who got past police barriers found BP contracted workers trying to clean up the oil with paper towels.


I cannot find words for such stupidity.


Six weeks into the disaster, workers are falling ill.


As this article says, there are few studies about long term human exposure to oil and oil fumes. And what about exposure to merchant ship crew members crossing the Gulf? 7 out America's top 10 ports are on the Gulf of Mexico.


So how much oil is leaking, and where is it going?


Here I go lashing out at BP again, but they have been very duplicitous with the numbers. They have been fooling the American public, and the world. Well, as a human being, I can partly understand this. The legal liability for BP is based on the amount of barrels leaked of oil per day.


At first, right after the spill, BP said 1,000 barrels a day. That quickly became 5,000. The numbers slowly crept upward. It took a long time for BP to release video of the leak, but now scientists are saying the true amount of the spill is 50,000 to 100,000 barrels a day.


BP now says that it is capturing 15,000 barrels per day, but that still leaves a lot of oil leaking into the ocean. Look at the video in the above link, oil is pouring into the ocean.


Where is it going?


Looking at this daily interactive map, it is well advanced into the Gulf of Mexico Loop current. That means it will very soon reach the North Atlantic.


A simulation I previously linked to shows the oil slick covering the entire eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, the Eastern US coast, and reaching Europe by the end of summer.


Also, please remember that since this well is so deep, 1,500 meters below the surface of the ocean. Much of the oil has been detected moving in deep underwater plumes. The plumes are moving in different directions. Where they will end up, no one can guess, but they will go somewhere with devastating effect.

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So what is going to happen?


I think this is pretty obvious, although Major media sources are only gradually beginning to say this. I think we should prepare for the prospect that all life in the Gulf of Mexico will go extinct. I think we should prepare for the event of all coastal Areas up to several kilometers inland from the coast will become uninhabitable because of oil fumes from polluted beaches and shorelines.


The oil spill will eventually blanket the Gulf, and seriously damage the Atlantic.


Well, so how how many people are we talking about? Looking at the population listed on this US government website, let us say that 50 million people live in the Coastal areas in 2010.


As commercial fishing will disappear, and tourism, so will the businesses that serve those industries. In any case, living on the coast will become a health risk. Long term constant exposure to oil fumes will cause early death.


So 50 million Americans will lose their jobs and have to move. In a few months. This will destabilize the United States of America.


The economic dislocation has already begun.


P&J Oyster company, with 134 years of history in New Orleans, is closing. There are no more oysters.


The shrimp industry is over.


Some figures.


Louisiana produces 50% of US shrimp, 35% of blue claw crabs, and 40% of it's oysters. The Gulf region as a whole produces 75% of American shrimp and in total 20% of America's seafood production.


That is now all over. And since oil is long lasting, and the amount released so massive, I think we say that it will be many decades before the Gulf recovers.


And I have not mentioned damage to fisheries on the US East Coast, the oil should start reaching there from mid summer.


Efforts to plug the leak


Several attempts to plug the leak with a cap were made immediately after it occurred. These were basically caps to siphon up all the oil to the surface. They all failed completely.


In late May, the most serious attempt to plug the leak was made, a "Top Kill".


This would force heavy drilling mud and cement into the well, sealing it. Well, that was the plan. It was found out that the pressure of the oil was way too high to be stopped.


But today, as I write this, I have found even worse news.


The oil casing is leaking inside the well. Oil and gas have been escaping through the rock and up through the sea floor. What this means that instead of a single drill hole, we will have an entire area of leaks.


At the present time two relief wells are being drilled in an attempt to intercept and plug the problem well at a deeper depth. There is now the possibility that the relief wells will not be enough, and that the entire sea floor will fracture and collapse, releasing the entire oil reservoir below all at once, in a giant volcano like explosion.

現在、二つの"Relief well"は掘削中、この試みはもっと深い所で問題の油井を途中で押さえる努力です。現在に、この二つの"relief well"が足りない可能性が有って、それと、すべての海底がひびに成って崩壊して、岩下の石油貯留槽のすべての石油を大きい火山みたいな爆発で出す可能性が有ります。

There are reports that large vents leaking oil have been found 11 kilometers away from the site.


For video of these vents and cracks leaking oil and gas, go here:


Now I mentioned relief wells. What are they? Well the concept is to drill another well parallel to the leaking well. Then, you go sideways, and intersect the leaking well, and pump cement in to fill it. This technique has worked on land before.

私は"relief well"を書きました。これは何ですか?この計画は漏れている油井の平行に掘削します。それで横から掘削して、漏れている油井に交差して、コンクリートを中に入れます。このやり方は、以前陸地の漏れている油井で大丈夫でした。

The first relief well will reach it's goal in August. However, oil spill experts say it is usually impossible to hit on the first try, it takes at least 3 or 4 times. So we should think of Christmas as a strong possibility.

最初の”relief well”は、8月に当たるでしょう。しかし、専門家の話で、最初の試みで当たるのはだいだい不可能ですし、普通3か4回位かかります。それでは、クリスマス位を考えた方がいいです。

The relief wells are being drilled to a depth of 3,000 meters. There is a strong reason for this. BP officials think the well casing is damaged and leaking 330 meters down. To successfully plug it with cement, they must get well below that. And there are serious indications that there are leaks below 330 meters.

”Relief well”の方は、3、000メートルまで掘削しています。これについて重要な理由が有ります。BP社の役員達は、油井ケーシングの漏れは330メートル下に有ると思っています。成功的にコンクリートで止める為に、その漏れの下に交差しないとダメです。それと、330メートル以下に他の漏れは有る兆候が有ります。

And now for some more of that very scary news. We know that the oil reservoir is beneath 4,000 meters of rock from the the sea floor. We know that the well casing has failed 330 meters below and perhaps other places below the well head. We know that oil and gas is leaking from that point into the surrounding rock, weakening it and creating new cracks and vents.


One thing. With this well, we have gone very deep, engineers are not used to these depths. And we have encountered extreme pressures, nothing like we have worked with before.


If there are other leaks in the casing deeper in the well, we are truly in serious danger. That would mean a large section of the surrounding rock would be constantly getting weaker from oil and gas leaking through it.


And the reservoir below is exerting constant extreme pressure on the rock formation. So if the entire rock formation is weakening, we are facing the possibility of an explosive eruption of massive amounts of oil and gas.


How much oil is in the reservoir? Well, who knows, but I think I can say an awful lot. Otherwise BP would not have drilled there in the first place.


So if we had a sudden massive eruption, perhaps we should think of the entire North Atlantic becoming an oil sea along with the Gulf of Mexico.


In my next post, I will discuss the social chaos and possibility of Civil War in America.


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