Friday, July 22, 2011

石油枯渇後、日本とアメリカ崩壊の比較(Part II) Comparing the collapse of America and Japan in the post oil world

Case America

America, on the other hand, will disintegrate as a civilized nation. For those who think I exaggerate, Greece is already tipping over into anarchy from it's financial crisis.

I am not the only person who is predicting an American collapse. Paul Craig Roberts was an Assistant Treasury Secretary in the Reagan administration.


Interestingly, Mr. Roberts predicts that the United States will simply abandon it's troops in overseas bases. He says America will have neither the fuel or the finance to bring the troops home. In such a case, in Japan, we may have to spend precious fuel delivering American military personnel and dependents back to the US. I would suggest the Pacific Northwest, Guam and Hawaii would not be able to support their present populations.


Concerning oil, America has steadfastly refused to consider Peak Oil. Or to even think about reducing oil usage. Instead, America has used it's military power to try to control the world sources of oil. Also, US embassies around the world are engaged in a desperate political struggle to control the world's oil supply to the advantage of America.


As we have seen with the Iraq war, this policy is a tremendous failure. Now that we have Saudi Arabia running out of oil, America is totally unprepared for this catastrophe.


America's transportation is totally dependent on oil. All food travels by truck, or if by rail, by diesel powered trains. 97% of America's transport is powered by oil. The only inter city American electric railroad runs from Boston to Washington D.C., this is not extensive enough to preserve national unity.

The Obama administration did make some effort to build electric trains, but the American Right destroyed this idea as a waste of money.


In 2008 the British government faced a crisis, oil prices were going too high for food to be delivered to cities. Urban supermarkets in Britain, America, and Japan only stock about three days worth of food in the stores themselves. Food must continuously be delivered by truck.


When oil prices are too high, the trucking company cannot meet costs, and goes bankrupt. In America, there are no electric trains, so no alternative transport system. In 2008 the British government had a conference. They were looking at social collapse and riots in three days when city supermarkets ran out of food.


Until now, the world has relied upon Saudi Arabia to pump more oil and cause the world price to fall.


America had the same danger, but they ignored it. They seem believe there will always be some saving miracle. I think that sometime in 2012 or afterwards, when Saudi Arabia is no longer able to meet normal demand, oil prices will surge upward.


Unlike Japan with a nationwide electric train system, America has no transport alternative. Food will stop coming into cities because shipping companies cannot afford to transport it. People in the cities will have nothing to eat, and will riot.


Many people may try to leave, but the only possible form of transport is the family car. Gasoline will be very expensive. In any case, American gasoline stations only keep one day's supply of gasoline in the station. As many people try to move, there will be price gouging by gas station owners.


Fights will break out. Most Americans have guns. Gun fights at gas stations will lead to explosions and fires. The same process will be repeated at super markets in small towns outside major cities.


In any case, the gas stations will soon run out of fuel, and in the social chaos that will arise, new deliveries of fuel will gradually become impossible.


Gangs of Black, Hispanic, and Asian Americans will leave their ghettos in the cities. As the population of most suburban towns is White, there will be a lot of racial fighting.


The fact is, America has a lot of racial trouble. The recent election of Barack Obama, a man half Black, shows how deep racial prejudice is in America. In the post oil world of America, it will be race war.


People evacuating cities will in effect have only the gas in their tank. When it runs out, they will walk. Most Americans, especially the White upper and middle class, are totally unfit for physical activity. They will also not be prepared for the ferocity of non White gangs roaming the landscape. They will die.


There will be a circle of devastation some 70 kilometers or so from most major American cities. Beyond that, only the fittest of the city dwellers will travel on foot.


In the immediate post oil period, there will be mass starvation in America.


99% of meat animals in the US are grown on factory farms.

These farms depend on cheap oil to transport feed to their animals, and to transport the animals to market.


If you look at this map of factory farms in the US, you can see the concentration. Hogs are centered in the Iowa area of the US, cattle in the Nebraska/Kansas area, and chickens in the American southeast.

Factory farms are designed for maximum profit. The animals are given antibiotics and hormones to increase growth rates. I have read of large hog farms that are sterile environments. No unfiltered air is allowed in from the outside. The germs in the normal environment would kill them.


Factory farming uses very few people. At the present time, only 2 or 3 percent of Americans are engaged in farming.


A factory farm is a very large operation. For example, pig farms where 30,000 or 40,000 pigs are raised by a few people are common. The idea of a factory farm is concentration, many animals raised by few people. This means more profit.


The collapse of transport, and so few people engaged in farming, means mass starvation in the post oil era United States. Animal husbandry, and the growing of crops takes specialized knowledge and experience. In most regions of America, post oil collapse, these people will not exist.


The areas that will survive, will be areas with natural water supply. This will be the American Pacific Northwest, and the American Midwest north of the Tennessee southern border, and the American Northeast.


After a year or so of chaos, military units based in such areas of America will establish order. They will attempt to restart local farming. Most farm work will be done by hand. There will be no fuel for vehicles. The military will confiscate all fuel supplies, but as there will be no more, eventually the United States Army will use the horse as primary transport. Calvary will return in America.


So we will see many small fiefdoms emerged based on military units. Since the American Army is primarily a Christian Fundamentalist Army, most of these fiefdoms will be ruled according to strict Fundamentalist principles. Refugees from cities who manage to escape to such areas, will be forced to convert to Christian Fundamentalism, and will work as serfs on farms or other places.


All travel will be by horse or on foot.


to be continued


No comments: